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Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.4% | +6.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.1% | -2.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -7.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.5% | -15.9 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |